Category Archives: Tax Research

Earnings tax data shows “dampening effect”

Ducks and Economics is a really great blog if you haven’t wandered across it in your (tireless, I’m sure) search for economic analysis of the taxes we pay in Missouri.

Today the blog takes up the earnings tax debate in Missouri by looking at data from MSAs (Metro Statistical Areas) that levy an earnings tax and how they are growing.

There ended up being 57 MSAs listed in the population data that I identified as having earning taxes. They range from Flint, Michigan with a -1.12% growth rate in 2008-2009, to Denver, Colorado, who experienced a 2.1% growth rate over the same period. Of these 57 MSAs, 45 are in the bottom half of cities ranked by population grown (the average MSA in 2008-2009 had a population growth rate of roughly .87%) and 9 were in the upper 50%.

This of course is not the whole story. The data only gives us an incomplete glimpse into what’s happening at a specific moment in time and doesn’t give us any information about trends. I would assume that young cities with high rates of growth might implement an earnings tax but that the tipping point isn’t reached for a while, but without controlling for how long each of these earning taxes have been in place I can’t make that conclusion. There are also many other idiosyncratic determinants of population growth that the data doesn’t allow me to engage. There is also a substantial risk that my data selection is incomplete. Regardless, it is suggestive that close to 90% of identified MSAs with earnings taxes are below the average MSA population growth rate; it suggests that earnings taxes has a dampening if not negative effect on population growth, particularly in cities hit hard by the recession.

Missouri Myth Busters

Americans For Prosperity-Missouri has some really informative Myth-Busters about taxation in Missouri: what hurts us now and what changes can help us grow and bring more jobs to the state.

Myth Buster #2


Myth #2: Sales Taxes are More Volatile than Income Taxes

Our last myth busters explained why Professional Services, such as lobbyists, will not be taxed under the tax reform measure commonly called the “Fair Tax”. As a recap, the tax base used to calculate the tax rate DOES NOT include business to business transactions. Professional Services performed for businesses, including non-profits, would not be taxed.

The next myth buster focuses on a statement made in several meetings that sales taxes are more volatile than income taxes. When I first heard the statement I thought it was a simple misstatement. The second time I heard it, I couldn’t believe it was being made on purpose. As Ronald Reagan said, “A man is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts.” The facts don’t support the statement.

The Office of Administration provided the last ten years of sales, income and corporate taxes. We took the data and plotted it using FY2000 as the normalized base. Here is the result.

tax volatility

It is pretty clear that one of the certain benefits to getting rid of income tax in Missouri is a move to a more stable source of revenue. Add to that the fact that workers will have more money in their paychecks and the state will become instantly attractive to new businesses with new jobs, and you’ve got a plan that just can’t be ignored.

KC Star details one of many special interest tax loopholes

The Kansas City Star picked out one of many sales tax exemptions that smack of special interest: Yachts.

One of the most glaring inequities in Missouri is the list of sales tax exemptions that pick certain types of sales “entitled” to a break.

Even if you could make a good case about why boats as a category should be exempt from charging sales tax, which seems doubtful, it seems ridiculous to choose only one type of boat: one that is generally considered a pleasure craft.

This is one of the biggest flaws in equity in Missouri’s current tax code. Over time, politicians have slipped exemptions in for certain types of businesses they believe are more deserving of a break than other businesses. Some exemptions we may believe are valid and worth continuing, but it is clear that we need a higher threshold, and a defense against the misuse of the tax exemption.

Part of the conversation surrounding SJR29 is necessarily about special interests. This plan would effectively reset the clock on decades of carve-outs, and put a check on politicians who would seek to reward or pick favorites through tax loopholes with the following language:

The enactment of any new exemptions will require a two-thirds affirmative vote by the General Assembly and approval by the Governor.

The KC Star article shows the wrongheadedness of thinking about tax exemptions:

Thanks to a longstanding tax exemption, Missouri’s marina set can opt to pay a small fee in lieu of sales taxes and shave as much as $30,000 off the purchase of a $500,000 boat.

That tax exemption alone is depriving state and local coffers of more than $6 million a year, according to some estimates. It’s just one of more than 130 untaxed transactions that are getting renewed attention in Jefferson City because of the state’s continuing budget crisis.

But if you’re buying a small bass boat or runabout, forget about any tax breaks. You’ll pay the full load.

Boat sellers contend the tax break is a good deal for the state. The additional revenue that taxing large boats would generate would be more than offset by sinking boat sales and lost jobs, said Mike Atkinson of the Lake of the Ozarks Marine Dealers Association.

Well, Mike Atkinson is right. That lovely get-out-of-sale tax-free card is certainly a boost to Missouri sales of large boats. Perhaps folks are coming from around the country to buy big boats in Missouri. But why do we think yachts are more important than any other type of boat, or any other type of business sale?

The SJR29 sales and use tax applies to any sale to a consumer of a good or service. It wants all businesses to get the same treatment. It wants to bring all kinds of businesses to Missouri by eliminating the state income tax. It eschews special interests for a holistic statewide interest.

Why do we need Tax Reform?

Beverly Martin enumerates the issues Missouri is facing economically. This is why we need a substantial reform bill that does away with Income Tax and replaces revenues with a sales tax.

“Unemployment rate in Callaway, Cole and Boone counties ticked up a tenth of a point in August.”

“Missouri jobless rate … highest levels in the last 26 years.”

“Unemployment rate increased in Callaway County from 8 to 8.2 percent.”

“Cole County increased from 7.0 percent in July to 7.1 percent in August.”

“Boone County increased from 6.6 percent in July to 6.7 percent in August.”

“Even higher in other counties … 9.2 percent Audrain … 10.3 percent in Osage … 11.1 percent in Montgomery County.”

“1,847 Callaway County residents … unemployed.”

“Missouri lost another 6,700 jobs during August … statewide unemployment rate of 9.5 percent … from 9.3 percent in July.”

“Missouri manufacturing lost 3,500 jobs during August.”

“Construction jobs in Missouri fell by 1,600 jobs in August.”

“Administrative and support sectors shed another 2,300 jobs.”

“Leisure and hospitality vacation-related employment lost 1,400 jobs in August.”

“Kansas City area lost 3,200 jobs.”

“St. Louis area lost 1,300 jobs.”

(Figures quoted from “Jobless rate rises in Callaway, Central Missouri,” by Don Norfleet, The Fulton Sun, September 25, 2009.)

To have or to be?

I recently came across a very intriguing chart. I’m certain you can glean your own interpretation from this simple but powerful look at partisan holdings in the most wealthy and influential corporations:

Revised_Partisan_Portfolios1
By David Sparks

Side note: Miller-McCune is a great resource if you’re drilling into the confluence of research and government or the economy.

MO should eliminate state income tax

When I talk about this idea with my friends, there is an automatic concern that any change to a flat tax or fair tax would point-blank soak the poor. There is certainly a concern about rates, prebates and thresholds that could be structured poorly or structured effectively – but without specific legislation to look at, we should be cognizant of why Missouri should even consider such a change.

Joe Haslag from the Show-Me Institute writes explaining why in the Columbia Daily Tribune. By all accounts, Missouri is sort of a middling state. We neither climb too high nor fall too far. But researchers over at the Show-Me Institute are concerned with how to change Missouri’s economy for the better, and the state income tax is one measure they’ve identified as counter-productive to growth.

No matter what kind of tax we’re talking about, or where it goes, our state government is inherently less efficient at distributing money than are individuals because there is a costly bureaucracy between receipt and expenditure of revenue. There are services we generally agree the state needs to perform, like building roads and providing social services and public education. But in the foreseeable future Missouri’s constraint will be budgetary, and their main goal will be to get Missourians working, earning money, to keep Missouri businesses here and thriving, and to help the economy recover. Taking money out of that economy is undesirable. Certainly necessary to an extent, but going forward the mission critical is getting the arteries of Missouri pumping again.

Based on this state objective and the extreme, difficult budget cuts that have been made over the last year, I don’t think Missouri can afford to ignore an option that could increase MO’s GDP, as the Op-ed states:

“…at a 2 percent annual rate if the state income tax were eliminated, as opposed to Missouri’s historic 1.3 percent growth. While a 0.7 percent increase in the growth rate might not sound like much, its impact would be significant for the next generation of Missourians. Indeed, Missouri’s real GDP gains would total $438.6 billion over this 25-year period, a substantial amount that would translate into more jobs and a higher standard of living.”

The influx of dollars into everyone’s paychecks, a broader base on a sales tax that would touch corners of the economy previously exempt from taxation through loopholes or shelters, the attraction of that spending to new or relocating businesses and the increased simplicity by which we would gather that revenue (the already-in-place sales tax mechanism) all contribute to putting more money into Missouri’s economy. All without a tax hike or cuts in services, and reimbursement plan could bring the tax burden of impoverished Missourians close to zero.

The fear of the unknown is thick in today’s economic and political culture. But I think if we decide to perfect a structural change with these benefits, we’ll achieve them, and we’ll achieve a stronger Missouri.

What Cap and Trade means for Missouri – and me.

The Springfield News-Leader posted an op-ed today by Carl Bearden examining the misguided Cap-and-Trade bill awaiting the Senate’s judgment.

I’ve written about this bill earlier, and while it’s a national issue, this op-ed breaks down what Missouri can expect to see if this ersatz environmental bill is passed, projecting that “by 2020 we would have 23,000 to 34,000 fewer jobs; a $900 to $2,800 reduction in annual household disposable income; an annual hit to Missouri economy of between $2.7 billion and $3.7 billion; and much higher energy prices – 21 percent to 67 percent higher for gasoline and 31 percent to 39 percent for electricity.” I don’t know about you, but my utilities are a huge chunk of my paycheck each month and they already increase every year as it is. So essentially, the additional costs to the businesses that employ Missouri workers will result in fewer jobs/reduced wages. Then those workers will turn around and be facing skyrocketing utility and gasoline prices, taking even more out of their paychecks for the same program.

So, try a rough estimate with me. Say my monthly disposable income is, like, $400, so $4800 a year. Heck, we’ll round up to $5000/year. Less the lowest-projected $900 reduction in household disposable income, so my disposable income would be $4100/year. I spend about $200 on my electric bill each month, so the lowest increase rate would cost me $62/month. I spend about the same on gas, so the lowest rate increase would be another $42/month, so that’s $1248/year in gas/electricity rate increases. Altogether, that’s 43% of my disposable income gone in the most conservative of estimates. It may be better or worse for some people, but it’s no small chunk of change and few Missourians are expecting raises in the foreseeable future.

This amounts to a tax increase: money shaved off of personal earnings to pay for a government program – a program that does very little if anything to decrease or deter greenhouse gas emissions, merely shuffles them around to companies that can afford the prices.

On a more lighthearted note:

Cap and Trade hurts.

I like the environment a lot. I’m not utterly opposed to environmental policy that first does no harm, but like this op-ed points out, the so-called Cap and Trade scheme causes a lot of harm. We have a lot of very smart people in this country and I think we can come up with something better than the feel-good symbolism and recklessly regulatory cap and trade idea.

What’s more, people via the market are increasingly demanding that businesses act environmentally friendly and produce environmentally friendly goods. The U.S. Government does not need to tax us into the stone age to force us to be environmentally mindful: we already are. But even if we weren’t trending that way, expending energy is a bi-product of living. For an extremely poignant opinion, see the Ayn Rand Institute.

From the Missouri Political News Service:

Cap-and-Trade Tax Hike Will Slam Missouri

By Carl Bearden and Phil Kerpen

The surprise revenue source to pay for much of the Obama budget is something known deceptively as “climate revenues,” also known as “cap-and-trade.” What cap-and-trade really means is tax-and-spend at an unprecedented level and with sweeping consequences throughout the economy, both nationally and here in Missouri. It’s the worst kind of tax hike – a hidden tax hike, hidden behind a complex regulatory scheme that only adds to the cost.

The size of the tax is a mystery. Companies know they have to pay a tax, but nobody knows what the tax rate is because companies will be forced to bid at auction for the government to allow it to use fossil fuels. The Obama budget initially slated the cap-and-trade tax to generate approximately $646 billion in revenue to the federal government over 8 years. More recently however, the deputy director for the White House National Economic Council, Jason Furman, reported that the tax scheme would actually raise two to three times that much, running upwards of $1.3 to $1.9 trillion. The truth is nobody knows how much this will cost, and that’s part of the problem.

We do know the impact on our economy here in Missouri would be staggering. An analysis conducted by the highly-respected forecasting firm SAIC and commissioned by the American Council on Capital Formation projected the economic impact of last year’s version of cap-and-trade for Missouri. They found that by 2020, with the bill in effect just 8 years, we would have: 23,000 to 34,000 fewer jobs, $900 to $2,800 in lower annual disposable income per household, an annual hit to Missouri economy of between $2.7 billion and $3.7 billion, and much higher energy prices – 21 percent to 67 percent higher for gasoline and 31 percent to 39 percent higher for electricity. The study also found that lower-income families – people who are least able to absorb higher energy costs – will be the hardest hit.

Those numbers are the impact of last year’s Lieberman-Warner version. We don’t have number yet on Obama’s new proposal, but it is more extreme and would be even more expensive.

These astonishing economic costs are not an unfortunate side effect of the bill – they are its intended purpose. President Obama himself explained that passing costs on to consumers is an important part of his plan when he explained to the San Francisco Chronicle last year: “Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket… whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers.”

What makes these costs even worse is that they don’t buy us anything of value on the environmental side. Cap-and-trade is already failing to reduce emissions in Europe. And even if emissions targets are met, climate models show that the reductions would have no discernible effect on global average temperature. The National Center for Atmospheric Research found that the Kyoto Protocol would reduce global average temperature 0.07 degrees Celsius in 50 years and 0.15 degrees Celsius in 100 years.

Feel good symbolism is not worth trillions of dollars in higher energy taxes. Climate change can only be effectively addressed with the luxury of wealth that a free-market provides. That’s why it would be such a mistake to impose a cap-and-trade, tax-and-spend scheme that would only undermine our prosperity. This will ultimately be decided in the U.S. Senate, and we can only hope that Sen. Claire McCaskill ultimately decides to vote “no” on cap-and-trade. The health of our state and national economies may depend on it.

Video explains MO Property Tax, reform bills

This is a great video. It explains very simply how property taxes are calculated and that taxpayers don’t have much control over their assessed value (determined by the County Assessor). It also talks about some legislation that, if passed, would give more control to taxpayers and help keep property taxes in line with property values.

I wouldn’t have been able to even guess how property taxes are figured, and Sarah Haenni definitely made a clear, easy-to-understand breakdown of that formula. Very helpful.

Map Missouri Taxes!

I know right now everyone has tunnel vision about personal income taxes, as the deadline is looming, but MSN Money has a great interactive map that compares gas, cigarette, beer and sales taxes by state.

MSN Money: Interactive Tax Map

MSN Money: Interactive Tax Map

It certainly offers a wild tour through state taxes, and the higher a state’s tax rates, the state assumes a bloodier color of red.